Here's this week's portfolio, with $2,500 in allocated investments now on the line:
$750 on Washington State (4-4, 1-4) vs. California (4-4, 1-4) +7.5: Without talented QB Chase Garbers, Cal has very little offense, and while the Golden Bears’ defense is stout, it’s not enough to deal with endless “three and outs” and a team losing four in a row. Meanwhile, the Cougars are averaging 42 points per game, even while losing. It’s worrisome though, that a good Utah defense held Wazzu to just 13 points. Nevertheless, I’m still thinking the Cougars' Air Raid Offense will roll in this one.
$500 on Penn State (8-0, 5-0) vs. Minnesota (8-0, 5-0) +6.5: Based on the metrics these two unbeaten teams are evenly matched. For example, the PSU offense is averaging 40 points per game and Minnesota is scoring an almost identical 36. So why not take the points? Simple: The Nittany Lions have played a more difficult schedule than the Golden Gophers. Recent matchups are illustrative: While PSU was beating Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa; Minnesota was outscoring the likes of Maryland, Rutgers, and Nebraska. Then there’s that game against a common foe, Purdue: PSU routed the Boilermakers 35-7, while Minnesota won by just seven, 38-31.
$250 on BYU (4-4) vs. Liberty (6-3) +17: Giving 17 points is huge with the Flames averaging 34 points per game via a dynamic passing attack at a time when the struggling Cougars' scores are stuck in the twenties, even when winning. But Liberty is now among a very select group---Teams having lost to Rutgers (34-44). Plus, the Flames will be travelling far across the country to a very cold place in the Wasatch Mountains, playing at high altitude, and suffering noise from a raucous crowd at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
$250 on Kansas State (6-2, 3-2) vs. Texas (5-3, 3-2) -5.5: I can’t resist taking the points here solely on the basis of the two teams recent experience against common foes: While K-State was beating Kansas 38-10, Oklahoma 48-41, and TCU 24-17; Texas was edging Kansas 50-48, and losing to both Oklahoma 27-34, and TCU 27-37. Yahoo!
$250 on Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1) vs. Iowa State (5-3, 3-2) +13: The Sooners have won all but two of their games by more than thirteen points, and if they are to break into College Football Playoff consideration they must top the Cyclones by similar double digits at a minimum. The metrics indicate that’s likely. However, it’s worth noting that all three of Iowa State’s losses have been by 7 points or less, so topping 13 may be a chore for the Sooners even at home.
$250 on San Diego State (7-1, 4-1) vs. Nevada (5-4, 2-3) +16.5: Hard to see how the Aztecs can cover a big spread, because win or lose, they seem to be stuck in the twenties score wise. But the Wolfpack has shown they can easily lose games by more than 17 points, and San Diego State’s defensive stats indicate it may be hard for Nevada to post much on the scoreboard.
$250 on Washington (5-4, 2-4) vs Oregon State (4-4, 3-2) +10: What? The Beavers are leading the Huskies in league play? Amazing! And, this game’s in Corvallis on a short travel week too! Well, it could happen, but I can’t help noting that two of those Washington losses were to Pac-12 South leader Utah (by 5 points) and Pac-12 North leader Oregon (by 4 points), while Oregon State’s three conference wins came against Pac-12 teams that are nowhere near contending for titles of any kind.
Last Edit: Nov 4, 2019 19:11:45 GMT -8 by Trojangles
This is a tough week to pick. It seems to me that Las Vegas is very much spot on with most of the games. So it’s $1000 only in play this week, half on one game.
$100 Louisville +6.5 vs Miami F They’re talking possible Orange Bowl in Louisville. As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast!” Satterfield has indeed changed the culture in town after last season’s disaster. The improving defense is encouraging despite utilizing some of the same players from last year since Satterfield had no time to recruit. It has been frustrating watching Cardinal transfers as 2 of Mississippi’s front 4. Or a RB as primary ball carrier for another team. So pulling this game out would say a lot against an erratic, underperforming Hurricane team. The Cards average 218 YPG while Miami’s defense yields 97 YPG. The Achilles Heel for Louisville is it’s pass defense.
$100 Purdue -2 vs Northwestern Boilermaker HC Jeff Brohm’s throw, throw, throw offense is now averaging above 300 YPG. Northwestern struggles to score points.
$100 USC +2 vs Arizona State 2 evenly matched teams. If the Trojans can establish a running game to go with the pass I can see them pulling this out. ASU’ s defense is solid so we’ll see.
$100 Alabama -6.5 vs LSU This game is like the Kentucky Derby. You’ve heard enough about both teams all week long. Pick a horse. I’m picking Saban to just cover. (He does pay attention to spreads I am told).
$100 Iowa +9.5 vs Wisconsin. Nobody is winning this one by 10 points, not these two conservative offenses vs entrenched defenses.
$500 Mississippi -28.5 vs New Mexico State. 0-8 Aggies will give up 45 points easily here. How many will they get? Maybe 10?