MONEY BETS 2019: WEEK ONE (Saturday 8/24/19 - Monday 9/2/19) . . . All Week 1 bets should be recorded on this thread, and all wagers placed prior to respective game starting times are acceptable---as long as the Las Vegas odds on the selected games remain open.
Big Louie wishes the best of luck to all players!
Last Edit: Aug 12, 2019 7:43:59 GMT -8 by Trojangles
MONEY BETS 2019: WEEK 1 . . . I'm an early-bird this week with these wagers already on the board and $1,525 on the line:
$500 on Florida vs. Miami (Fla) +7 - In his second year, HC Dan Mullen has the Gators on the rise (10-3, 5-3 in 2018, including a 41-15 Peach Bowl romp over Michigan), while former DC Manny Diaz hopes he can do the same in his first year as HC of the Hurricanes (7-6, 4-4 in 2018, and crushed 3-35 by Wisconsin in the 2018 Pinstripe Bowl). So, while a turnaround may happen for Miami, I'm thinking it won't be in that season opener in Orlando. Plus, one can't help noting that Michigan tromped Wisconsin 38-13 last season.
$500 on Southern California vs. Fresno State +13.5 - (1) FSU HC Jeff Tedford has more coaching credibility than embattled USC HC Clay Helton may ever attain, and (2) the Bulldogs' record in 2018 (12-2, 7-1, including a 31-20 Las Vegas Bowl victory over Arizona State), dwarfs the Trojans' flapdoodle (5-7, 4-5) season, including a 35-38 loss at home to those very same Sun Devils. But the Las Vegas line favors USC . . . and keeps rising incrementally (opened at FSU +10), which leaves me thinking---I'm not the only one impressed by stirrings down at University Park and worries in Fresno about life without their talented QB Marcus McMaryion and members of his supporting cast.
$50 on Northwestern vs. Stanford -6.5 - Both Pat Fitzgerald and David Shaw are excellent head coaches, their teams feature physical football, and registered somewhat similar records in 2018: Both schools lost to Notre Dame---Northwestern at home 21-31 and Stanford 17-38 in South Bend. Overall, the Wildcats went 9-5, 8-1 in 2018, including a 31-20 Holiday Bowl victory over Utah (a team that crushed Stanford 40-21 earlier in Palo Alto), and the Cardinal ended 9-4, 6-3 with a narrow 14-13 win over Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-4) in the Sun Bowl. So, maybe the 6.5 points is simply the Cardinal's home field advantage. Just a hunch, but I smell an upset.
$250 on Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State +15.5 - Last season, the Beavers lost their opener to Ohio State 31-77. While the Cowboys won't match that 46 point margin, they will surely win and cover the point spread---Unless a fog bank covers Corvallis, as is sometimes the case up there this time of year.
$50 on Auburn vs. Oregon +3 - Another season opening Pac-12 pratfall in a game of national significance? Likely: The Ducks have a ton of returning starters and talent to spare, but the Tigers have HC Gus Malzahn calling offensive plays for AU once again, and that makes a big difference.
$50 on Utah vs. BYU +5 - Tough to give points in a rivalry game like this, especially when it's being played in Provo. The Utes were lucky to pull out a fourth quarter victory over the Cougars in SLC last year, and BYU QB Zack Wilson will be out to deliver an upset. But, Utah has virtually all of its starters returning from a 10-3 season and will be looking for OOC style points that home games with Idaho State and Northern Illinois won't deliver.
$25 on Arizona vs. Hawai'i +11 - It all depends on UofA's QB Khalil Tate. If he both runs and passes I win; if he stays a pocket passer with the NFL in mind, I lose. $25 Arizona State vs. Kent St. +25.5 - The Golden Flashes have 12 starters returning, from a team that beat just two schools: Howard and Bowling Green. Sun Devils have 12 starters back too.
$25 on Colorado vs. Colorado State +11 - The Rams beat just three teams last year---all wimps: New Mexico, San Jose St., and yes, Arkansas.
$25 on New Mexico St. vs. Washington St. -33 - The hapless, 3-9 Aggies lost big several times in 2018, but only twice by more than 33 points; meanwhile, 11-2, Alamo Bowl champ Wazzu topped that margin just once.
$25 on UCLA vs. Cincinnati -3.5 - After 2018's 3-9 maiden season, Bruin fans are getting tired of waiting for HC Chip Kelly (the highest paid coach in UCLA history) to deliver.
Last Edit: Aug 12, 2019 10:22:34 GMT -8 by Trojangles
Post by misterjimi on Aug 23, 2019 17:26:41 GMT -8
OK After much distraction and a great vacation on the shore of Lake Ontario I am ready to begin a new season. I see Trojangles is well organized already. I will start with games this weekend.
$200 Florida -7.5 vs Miami F. The Gators look ready to take the next step with HC Dan Mullen. He has recruited well to fill in the gaps. Miami needs to get QB Jarren Williams healthy and focused. Everyone is excited about Miami's hire of Manny Diaz. I may be wrong but i don't see a successful HC in this lifelong DC. I'm looking for a defensive battle and a low score.
$300 Cincinnati -3 vs UCLA The Bearcats have their entire 15th ranked offense back plus their injured 2017 starting RB who missed last year plus a new dual threat QB who can take off in a hurry. Whew! The passing game? Not so sure. The 11th ranked defense lost 3 starters on the DL so the Bruins can probably run on them. Chip Kelly is still trying to put together a high octane offense but he hasn't landed the OL to get it done. The DL can be run on which is bad news for this game. Pundits are calling for a big Cincy win here at home. I'm not buying that but covering 3 should be easy enough.
$300 Arizona -12 vs Hawaii I got burned betting against Hawaii & its surprising QB early last year but reality caught up with him late in the season. Wildcat QB Tate doesn't get to freelance this year which may be a damper on the offense but Hawaii has no defense to speak of. Arizona is gradually pulling it altogether but in a more structured approach. Good fundamental football almost always wins out. We're talking less than 2 TDs here. I'm looking for Arizona to score in the 40s.
Last Edit: Aug 24, 2019 17:32:43 GMT -8 by misterjimi
Post by misterjimi on Aug 24, 2019 18:49:41 GMT -8
This Florida-Miami game is probably the worst football I have ever witnessed. I don’t care who wins. This is awful! Pass Interference repeatedly in the most unlikely situations, a dozen missed tackles by the Gator secondary, constant fumbles, many unforced, penalties galore, blown opportunities by both teams, throwing the ball with the lead & the clock running down... Dan Mullen needs to explain to his team what discipline play looks like. And his overrated QB needs to stop mugging to the cameras. Leave that stuff to the Hurricanes. Miami needs to post want ads in the local paper for offensive linemen.
I had to open my windows. The stink coming from my TV was too much. 😡
Last Edit: Aug 24, 2019 18:57:22 GMT -8 by misterjimi
Post by misterjimi on Aug 24, 2019 19:03:23 GMT -8
On to the next game. Did those attending the game pay for tickets or did the U of Hawaii pay them to come? Aloha Stadium is well named. Most of the fans apparently said Aloha a while ago. The TV cameras can’t hide the twenty thousand empty seats.
Now I know why they call it "ZERO WEEK" . . . My two bets were losers:
LOST: $500 on Florida vs. Miami +7 - Fumbling Florida won 24-20, but couldn't find a way to cover the seven point spread . . . even though I kept my fingers crossed to the very end. LOST: $25 on Arizona vs. Hawai'i +11 - Warriors schooled the Wildcat defenders ugly and vice-versa. In the end, turnover prone Hawai'i didn't need the points, winning outright, 45-38.
Bottom Line: The "Trojangles' Curse" continues . . .
Last Edit: Aug 25, 2019 8:52:52 GMT -8 by Trojangles
I whiffed in my first two swings of the season: Lost $200 on Florida -7.5 vs Miami. What a stinker of a game this was! These 2 HC's have got a lot of work to do. From what I see of Florida I'm not sure I would rank them. Lost $300 Arizona -12 vs Hawaii. Again I get burned by Hawaii's QB! And again Arizona looks overrated.
More Bets: An interesting trend in Las Vegas this season is the collapsed spreads vs cupcakes that many teams are opening their season with. The way I see things if new HCs Les Miles at Kansas & Jim McIlwane at Central Michigan can't cover here then they just can't coach any longer. Ditto for the rest of the name HCs here. I'm going with the favorites on all of these: $100 on each: Kansas -4.5 vs Indiana St The Jayhawks are expected to win 4 games this year with crazy Miles. West Virginia -5.5 vs James Madison I know Dana ran away but less than a TD? Central Mich -6 vs Albany If you can't cover against this little upstate NY team... California -13 vs Cal-Davis Cal-Davis? You're in the damn PAC12 for cying out loud! Syracuse -16.5 vs Liberty Whoa! Syracuse is a rankable team. Liberty? Ridiculous. UConn -17.5 vs Wagner FYI Wagner is a nice little basketball college located in Staten Island NY. They also play football. Probably a lot of Brooklyn kids. Name a famous Brooklyn football star.
Real games I like: $200 Wisconsin -13 vs USF Lots of stonewall defense here. Turnovers are probably the key. $100 Utah St +3.5 vs Wake Forest Gary Anderson returns to Utah State. I'm a big fan. He has already recruited a boatload. I love his special teams here vs a sloppy Wake Forest. $200 Mississippi -6 vs Memphis The Bulldogs hire OC Rich Rodriguez who installed his famous spread offense. Unfortunately one of the 4 freshman QBs gets to run it. Memphis has 7 new Asst Coaches! $200 SMU -2.5 vs Arkansas State SMU HC Sonny Dykes picks up transfer Shane Buechele from Texas who is waiting to show what all the noise was about a while ago. $50 Louisville +20 vs Notre Dame The Bobby Petrino days are over. New HC Scott Satterfield inherits a real mess & is cleaning house without a real recruiting season to boot.He's a hard working, well organized former Appalachian State HC who did a phenomenal job building that program. Satterfield promises a lot of exotic looks to the running game vs the Irish LBs. I don't know. Disappointing 4 star QB Jawon Pass is the starter again. I don't like him. The weak OL will not help and watching 2 Cardinal transfers starting on the DL for Mississippi the other night is frustrating. I'm banking that the Cards don't let this game get away from them. The quitters from last year are gone.
Last Edit: Aug 27, 2019 7:26:27 GMT -8 by misterjimi
Post by Trojangles on Aug 28, 2019 13:02:41 GMT -8
Well, it looks like it's about time we added a ROBO bettor to this derby, so I'm pleased to introduce . . . ROBODuck!
A MONEY BETS newbie who will be making a single, even wager on Oregon in every football game the Ducks play this season---taking the most favorable Las Vegas' Oregon odds posted for each game at the time the bet is posted.
So, let's get things started with ROBODuck's first wager of the year:
$500 on Oregon vs. Auburn -3.5: THE QUACK ATTACK! If there was ever the time for the Ducks to smack a bigtime SEC team down for the count in a game of national consequence . . . It's now!
Last Edit: Aug 28, 2019 13:12:06 GMT -8 by Trojangles
Did you check to see if it's against NCAA rules for mascots to bet on games? . . . [Our] misbegotten, long-gone (thank goodness) Roboduck.
HAH! Bench, I had forgotten all about that aquamanile character when I opted for the moniker "ROBODuck", having almost tagged him with "ROBOUDuck". But, with apologies to dumpster divers everywhere, I'll stick with my bettor choice.
... I had forgotten all about that aquamanile character when I opted for the moniker "ROBODuck"...
Many of us are still trying to forget him.
Three guys on a local radio show always give their picks during the college football season and last year added a fourth participant--The Coin. One of them flips The Coin each week to pick a game. I think The Coin came in third.